A military strike is easy, but managing the consequences without escalation is often impossible. This article will explain to you what many are failing to explain.
Military commanders likely warned against this war for that very reason. Think about Operation Epic Fury this way: You have a neighboring family you don’t get along with. You aren’t friends, and the rest of the neighborhood doesn’t like them much either. One night, you decide to "assert your dominance." You break into their home, burn down the living room, kill the father, beat the mother, and slash the tires of both family vehicles — all while the children watch in horror.
Did you resolve the situation, or did you just create a permanent enemy? Will the neighbors condone or condemn your behavior? No, you did not resolve it; you made it worse, and their loved ones will be seeking retribution. Furthermore, your other neighbors will likely abandon you for being a violent idiot who lacks temperance. This is what we are essentially facing at the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) and the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iran - Making a bad situation worse
The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed by the USA, was a dangerous and polarizing man who subjugated the Iranian people. But killing him was not going to solve the problem. How do I know? Who replaced him? His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named Iran's Supreme Leader on March 9, and he is an even more dangerous and theocratically extreme younger man who is now pushing for even greater retribution against the USA.
For almost 50 years, we did not start a conflict with Iran because we knew it creates a lot of negative unintended consequences that will lead to a protracted global conflict, only a handful of which have manifested thus far. Bravado is the wrong answer; temperance and strategy — what is known as Rules of Engagement (ROE) — is what is needed. The incumbent "Secretary of War," Pete Hegseth, is against ROE. That is not only a facepalm, but also extremely dangerous for all of us — including himself.
Iranians consider this a holy war prophecy coming true; therefore, even if the USA destroys all their military equipment, that won't stop their will to fight even more fiercely. My key question is: where are the military brass who are supposed to be able to articulate truth to power? They should have known better. Getting into conflict is easy; sustaining it is a whole different league. But if military top commanders spoke up and we hear it after the fact, that means they failed at their duties to protect our nation — this happened on their watch — and was preventable. History will not be kind to them. Why do I say that? What has been resolved since Operation Epic Fury started? Nothing! What has gotten exponentially worse? Everything!
A Holy War of Zealot Prophecies
Did you know that you can make a "prophecy" come true if you embark on the series of factors that will make it come true? In other words, it is not a "prophecy"; it is a "plan." If I have an epiphany and write down a "prophecy" that my neighbor is going to sue me, and I go out and burn his backyard, then my "prophecy" comes true — likely sooner than later.
For centuries, Shia Muslims have prophesied that indices will bring fire from the sky — and that they will have to respond with overwhelming jihad. On February 28, the USA military fulfilled that prophecy. And that is only half of the equation. The other half is a faction of Christianity that is convinced that the second coming of Jesus will happen in their lifetimes. And that these tribulations — of death and destruction — only happen if all Jewish people are back in Israel, as Armageddon starts from the Golan Heights — which borders present-day Syria, Lebanon, and northern Israel.
In their "prophecy," Jesus will either force conversion to Christianity or kill everybody who does not. By then, this relatively small group of Christians are also convinced that they might miss the entire bloodbath because they will be raptured into heaven while those stuck on earth are experiencing the wrath of Jesus, who returns not with peace but with the sword. Read your Bible; it is at the end.
In case it was not obvious, our "Secretary of War" wrote [books] about these apocalyptic times — and as recently as March 13, he stated this is a "No Quarter War" — which is a war crime (18 U.S.C. 2441). And the Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, also believes that Israel is supposed to extend from the Nile to the Euphrates — and if you understand geography, that is the Middle East — also crossing Arab and Persian-heritage countries who have been waiting for this prophecy to fight to the death.
So, in case you're still not following, both these theocratic interpretations are also deeply antisemitic because it expects Jews to stop being Jews or be killed in the process. And while your congregation might not an apocalyptic death cult, many of those making war decisions are. This is not freedom of religion; it is imposing a view that was considered fringe among the majority of the 45,000 Christian denominations. In other words, our First Amendment — not to be dragged into somebody's imposed religious view — is being violated, even if you happen to be Christian yourself.
A Protracted Global Conflict
Iran stated they are not seeking a ceasefire nor peace talks — they won't stop. The conflict has already spilled out of the region and will not stop there. Again, this is a "holy war" for them — and when faith overrides temperance and rationality, we are all stuck in the middle whether you subscribe to their interpretation or not. We knew for decades escalating hostilities would only backfire in more ways than I can enumerate. The entire world is now involved — despite a "technically superior" military operation by the USA.
Being sure that the US armament and personnel would be very capable of concocting a strike was never the question. Yes, we can, we are proficient — but it was the wrong solution. It is like opening a soup can by running it over with an SUV. The can will open, but the result will not only be messy, but it also does not resolve the issue.
I will write more about this global conflict because it is highly complex. And hopefully, somebody with placement and access in the military will be able to speak truth to power. If I was still in uniform, as an intelligence analyst, you can bet your bottom dollar I would have spoken against this — because this Course of Action (COA) does not only not resolve the underlying issue but creates the incendiary mess we have just started to witness... and it will last for years with no winners on either side.
What is the solution? Well, the full story would be classified, so I cannot tell you here. But what I can say is that there is a reason why other countries are not running towards helping the USA on this conflict. Who wins? Well, the Kremlin and China for sure, without having to lift a finger. Who loses? Everybody else.
And before you go telling me that Iranians are happy about all this carnage — claiming you understand them better than I do, kindly name five Iranian dishes, five Iranian cities, five turning points in their history — don't look it up, tell me. And while you're at it: Do you remember seeing similar "happy times" when Saddam Hussein in Iraq (2006) or when Gaddafi (2011) in Libya were killed? How did that go? Are those places stable today? They are not. What makes you think this will be any different? We've already made more mistakes than both of those scenarios put together — despite the benefit of hindsight.
What can you do about it?
If you're military, especially in a senior position — speak up! You might get in trouble today — but your legacy is what you do in uniform today, when things are hard and you have to show fortitude of character despite being the only one standing up. Bring recommendations to your chain of command with cause and effect. If it feels like a war crime, likely it is. For example, when the USA sank a Jamaran Iranian ship that was unarmed during an exercise and refused to rescue the survivors — who had to be helped by the Sri Lankan Navy — that puts the entire US Navy in a bad light, in war-crime territory. And it hurts me personally, because I am a US Navy Veteran. That means those Sailors — who whether understood or did not have the benefit of the full context — are now guilty of a war crime.
If you're an elected leader or their staff — get your head out of your rectum. Inaction means blood on your hands, even if it is by capitulation. I've been asked to "walk in patience" by elected leaders' staffs — meanwhile, many more Military Members were wounded and killed — and thousands more are getting their lives destroyed under a present theological-prophecy-driven conflict. Hold those inflicting damage to our country and humanity accountable, regardless of party. Patience is out of the question, this won't get fix on its own, it takes teamwork of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs).
If you're a regular civilian — keep your eyes on the ball. You cannot stop this; it has already started. You cannot ignore it; it is not a matter of if, but when it will negatively impact you. It has already — your wallet, the cost of living, and probably loved ones serving in a conflict that should have never started. There were thousands of ways to resolve the US-Iran situation; this COA was the worst possible one — and we've known that for decades. And no, only moving the oil from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah is not an option — if it was, it would have been done long ago.
- Capacity Constraints: The pipeline has a maximum capacity of 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). This only covers roughly half of the UAE's pre-war production of 3.4 million bpd, meaning substantial volumes remain stranded if other routes are closed.
- Recent Security Disruptions: As of March 14, 2026, loading operations at the Port of Fujairah have been temporarily suspended following a drone attack and subsequent fire.
- Infrastructure Targeting: While the pipeline itself provides a bypass, the export terminals and storage silos in Fujairah have been declared "legitimate targets" in the ongoing regional conflict, leading to fires and precautionary shutdowns.
- Insurability and Shipping Risks: Even when the pipeline is functional, many shipping companies are hesitant to send tankers to Fujairah due to the risk of missile strikes and the refusal of insurers to cover vessels in the area.
- Product Limitations: The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) system is designed primarily for crude oil (specifically the Murban grade). It lacks the specialized infrastructure to move refined products like diesel or jet fuel, which still largely depend on maritime transport through the Strait.
- Loading operations at the Port of Fujairah officially suspended as of March 14 following drone strikes, the UAE's primary export grade, Murban crude, is now effectively stranded — proving that a bypass is only as strong as its most vulnerable terminal.
Open Letter to Military Leaders
History has recorded already your action and inaction to prevent giving our adversaries everything they wanted since 1949 - in less than a week! A witting insider threat is also those who know there is sabotage to our own team and look away. Whether it is due to incompetence, dereliction, or because you subscribe to the same apocalyptic "prophecy" — you should have known better. Get mad all you want at me for saying this, but you failed us. Striking targets with sophisticated multimillion dollar missiles is easy, but you cannot destroy the fighting spirit of those who feel wronged by their aggressors. For every person you kill, thousands more are seeking revenge — we've known this. We've trained about this; you've been briefed about this. We understand how these adversaries would react - and how this supports our larger adversaries geopolitically.
Instead, you extended deployments, and this is after you failed to make any changes in Venezuela after forcing your Sailors to commit war crimes in SOUTHCOM. For what? What was solved? Nothing — you have the same political party of Maduro in charge, and the price of oil is the highest it has ever been.
You now are moving various Amphibious groups into the Iranian area — why? Boots on the ground — for what? What is this resolving? Speak Truth to Power! If you cannot do it, then those stripes are only for decoration. There is a new version of the Nuremberg Trials unfolding — those you report to are considered war criminals, are you not aware of this?
Speaking truth to power is not insubordination — it is your duty! You're supposed to be the subject matter expert; you're the one who is supposed to understand the intricacies of war and conflict. Your Secretary of War was a Junior Officer with fragmented service in a state-level military force — not even a federal level service — he is the most inexperienced person in that position in the history of the USA. It was up to you to train him and speak truth to power to uphold your oath of office!
You've already failed at that; the global conflict already occurred, our allies already abandoned us, key logistical hubs in the region are already destroyed, and our forces are shifting from Centers of Gravity to a region that is bringing them into a trap — while outflanking our vulnerable areas.
Wake up and newsflash, you're not as smart as you think you are — you're as smart as those who brief you are. If they choose the incorrect two lines for that slide you read, you're just as uninformed as the rest of the world. I know, because I used to write those lines for you, and we did not start global conflicts back then. I don't know who is writing them now, or why you ignore it, but the bottom line is that history will not be kind to you. This is your legacy — speak up, because as bad as it is now, it will get a lot worse. That is very evident unless you're blind, or stupid - either way you should know better. BZV
About the Author: J. Marcelo "BeeZee" Baqueroalvarez
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J. Marcelo "BeeZee" Baqueroalvarez is the Founder of Half Life Crisis™, a unique father-daughter collaboration dedicated to the relentless pursuit of intellectual honesty, critical thinking, geopolitical strategy, and meaningful art. Marcelo is the recognized author of the essential reads, Authoritarianism & Propaganda and Woke & Proud, driving challenging conversations worldwide. When not publishing, Marcelo utilizes his strategic insight in technology and business as the founder of BeeZee Vision, LLC™, which includes BZVweb™ Automated Web Services and Info in Context™ strategic consulting.
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