BZV analyzes the imminent strike on Cuba. As "Operation Absolute Resolve" spills over, see how 1950s history and the Maduro raid create a new hot siege.
Part 5 — Cuba: Turning a Bad Situation Even Worse
Executive Summary (BLUF): Cuba is a time capsule of communism. Despite the Castro brothers being gone (Fidel died in 2016, Raúl retired in 2021), the island remains the primary strategic outpost for America’s Cold War-era adversaries. With the expansionist "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine, an imminent kinetic or economic strike is no longer a matter of if, but when. This will create an exponential destabilization cascade in a region already fractured by the fall of Venezuela. The forensic reality is complex: we are witnessing the transition from a "Long Cold War" to a "Short Hot Siege."
Echoes from the Cold War & New Realities
Before the 1959 Revolution, Cuba was a playground for wealthy Americans under the U.S.-aligned dictator Fulgencio Batista. When Fidel Castro seized power, the island became the "Second World" epicenter in the West. As a consequence, the U.S. imposed an embargo that effectively froze the island in the 1950s.
Despite the Soviet collapse in 1991 — 35 years ago — the embargo remains. I’m not taking sides; I’m recording the forensic trajectory. There has been no shortage of miscalculations by those in power on either side. After Fidel died, power eventually transitioned to Miguel Díaz-Canel in 2018 (and formally as Party Leader in 2021). While the Obama administration attempted a "thaw" in 2014, those gates were slammed shut.
Today, the 11 million people on the island continue to consume highly redacted information. Most only know communism as "the way things are." Those in exile have a different perception, but even that is filtered through a lens of privilege that most modern Cubans will never know.
The Rubio "Entitlement" Correction
Ironically, the current Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is a first-generation American whose parents fled Cuba. Rubio often frames his family story as "fleeing the thug Castro," but the forensic timeline tells a different story.
The Fact-Check: Rubio’s parents arrived in the U.S. in 1956 — more than two years before the revolution. They weren’t "balseros" fleeing communism; they were economic migrants moving during the Batista regime. Forensically, this suggests they were likely aligned with, or at least tolerated by, the pro-Batista establishment.
Rubio benefits from a safety haven that he is now actively dismantling for everyone else. If the "America First" policies he enforces today — which make it exponentially harder for those fleeing danger to find refuge — had been in place in 1956, Marco Rubio wouldn't have been born a U.S. citizen, let alone become Secretary of State. Exile is an experience, but entitlement is a choice. He didn't have to suffer the shark-infested waters; he walked through an open door he is now trying to kick shut behind him.
Easier Target Misperception
The administration had a taste of "military success" with the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3. But as I’ve logged in the Diary, this didn't resolve the situation; it triggered "Human Shrapnel." The Collectivos in Venezuela are now going door-to-door in a retaliatory purge.
Cuba has its own enforcement arm — the Interior Ministry (MININT) and the "Rapid Response Brigades." Removing the "head of the snake" (Díaz-Canel) won't stop the machine; it will only create a power vacuum. When asked on live TV about the plan for elections in Venezuela, Rubio looked surprised. There is no "Day After" plan. I would be surprised if they have not planned far ahead with Cuba - or any other expansionistic threat.
How do I know? Because if I can see all these flaws without being in the planning room as clear as day, then that means their planning process was flawed. There is a reason why the entire planet is opposed to US expansion.
The Human Factor: Invading is easy; holding is impossible. Venezuelans and Cubans will not simply "assimilate" to American law enforcement beating them into submission. If the U.S. pushes these people to the limit where they have nothing left to lose, we aren't creating "freedom" — we are inviting an insurgency that will make the last 20 years of Middle Eastern conflict look like a rehearsal to a flop.
What is the endgame?
Are we turning Cuba into a State? We won't even give Puerto Rico (full of U.S. citizens) that dignity.
Are we restoring 1950s infrastructure with "American Prowess" while our own power grids are failing?
Are we forcing English on a population that spoke Spanish before the Spanish-American War of 1898 redrew the map?
Put a pin in that. Why do you think the bottom of the US Map is full of Spanish sounding-places in Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and California?
Geopolitics with Cuba: January 2026
Cuba is currently the "second act" of Operation Absolute Resolve. Here is the Jan 16 Tally:
The Body Count (Jan 15): Havana just held a state funeral for 32 Cuban officers killed during the U.S. raid in Caracas. These are the first "Martyrs" of the 2026 conflict.
The "Playing with Fire" Tie-in: Just like Canada is looking to China for a lifeline, Cuba is being backed into a corner. Their only options are total submission to D.C. or becoming a permanent "outpost" for a French/Chinese/Russian counter-bloc.
The Macron Red Flag: During President Macron's recent speech on "Strategic Autonomy," he specifically referenced the need for Europe to stand against "unilateral aggression." Cuba is the first pawn being sacrificed in the brewing EU vs. USA trade war.
There is a saying in Spanish: "Un pendejo hace más daño que un terremoto" (A moron does more damage than an earthquake). Geopolitics is exponentially complex, and miscalculations take generations to fix. Benjamin Franklin said, "failing to plan is planning to fail." From where I sit, the "planning committee" is full of short-sighted "yes-men."
The "Navy-of-1" Closing Note
Don't bank your chips on the idea that Cubans will receive the U.S. as "liberators" after being indoctrinated for 60 years in a literal isolated time capsule — especially if we arrive guns blazing. Our adversaries (Russia/China) play the long game, exploiting the American Achilles' heel: the need for instant gratification.
I’m not ending this on a happy note. I’m sounding the alarm. Understand these repercussions, because they affect your life — and mine. Sometimes those you admire are playing things by ear with faulty data. Anyone who cannot come to grips with that will stagnate. You do you, but don't force others who know better to be dragged down to the stupid ages. BZV
Continuance: Iran — A Massacre derived from Theocracy and Authoritarian Power
About the Author: J. Marcelo "BeeZee" Baqueroalvarez
🔗 Connect & Learn More: Visit Marcelo's comprehensive landing page for his extended bio, social links, consulting form, and more.
J. Marcelo "BeeZee" Baqueroalvarez is the Founder of Half Life Crisis™, a unique father-daughter collaboration dedicated to the relentless pursuit of intellectual honesty, critical thinking, geopolitical strategy, and meaningful art. Marcelo is the recognized author of the essential reads, Authoritarianism & Propaganda and Woke & Proud, driving challenging conversations worldwide. When not publishing, Marcelo utilizes his strategic insight in technology and business as the founder of BeeZee Vision, LLC™, which includes BZVweb™ Automated Web Services and Info in Context™ strategic consulting.
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